Track SpaceX's Path to Public Markets

SpaceX IPO projection card

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Projected IPO Window: Q4 2026

Based on: Kalshi market data (~45% by Jun 2026), Starlink subscriber trajectory, secondary market activity

⚠️ No official S-1 filed as of March 2026. This is an AI projection — not an official announcement.

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Persephone's Prediction

Based on: Kalshi market data, secondary market valuations, Starlink subscriber growth, Starship launch cadence, and historical tech IPO patterns.

IPO PROBABILITY BY DATE

Before Jun 2026: ~45% (Kalshi consensus)
Before Dec 2026: ~68% (estimated)
Before Jun 2027: ~82% (estimated)

MY CALL

Q4 2026 is the most likely window. Starlink IPO first (expected mid-2026) will serve as the pricing anchor. SpaceX S-1 filing likely within 90 days of Starlink listing. Watch for: SEC Starlink filing → that's the real signal.

CONFIDENCE: Medium-High

No S-1 filed as of March 2026. All projections based on market signals, not official announcements.

⚠️ Not financial advice. This is an AI-generated analysis.

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